India’s statistical agency has revised the GDP/GVA base year from 2011–12 to 2022–23, the first comprehensive revision in over a decade, overhauling data sources and estimation methods. The revision incorporates updated methodologies and broader sectoral coverage, aligning national accounts more closely with international best practices. Under the new series, FY26 nominal GDP is lower by approximately 3.3% compared to the first advance estimate, pushing fiscal deficit and central government debt ratios higher compared to the revised budget estimates.

The new series presents a relatively steady picture of economic growth, with real GDP growth revised to 7.2% and 7.1% in FY24 and FY25, respectively. As per the second advance estimate, economic growth is projected to rise to 7.6% in FY26, driven by strong private consumption and a recovery in investment. Q3 FY26 real GDP growth came in at 7.8%, supported by GST cuts, festive demand, and a low deflator. We expect real GDP growth of 7.4% in FY26, remaining relatively steady at 7.0–7.3% in FY27. With CPI inflation expected to range at 4.0–4.5% in FY27, the RBI is likely to maintain an extended pause while focusing on policy transmission. Key risks stem from evolving geopolitical tensions in West Asia, which could weigh on both inflation and the economic growth outlook