Despite global uncertainties stemming from US trade policy, the global economy seems relatively resilient. However, recent geopolitical tensions have added to uncertainty. Domestically, India’s FY25 real GDP rose by 6.5%, with Q4 surprising on the upside at 7.4%. Evolving high-frequency indicators suggest a mixed recovery in FY26 so far. Real GDP growth is projected at 6.2% for FY26, supported by robust rural demand due to a strong agricultural outlook and a moderate gain in urban consumption. Investment will be driven by government capital expenditure as the private investment outlook looks cautious. Rising geopolitical risks remain key watchpoints for trade and oil prices. Amidst the continued broad-based moderation in inflation, the RBI front-loaded a 50 bps repo rate cut, complemented by a 100 bps CRR cut to accelerate transmission and support growth. Further, the policy stance was shifted to neutral, raising the bar for future rate cuts. Accordingly, while we do not eliminate the possibility of future rate cuts, it would require a material downside surprise to growth. Accordingly, we expect a pause in the August meeting.