India’s real GDP growth for FY25 came in at a four-year low of 6.5%, marking a sharp slowdown from 9.2% in FY24. This comes despite economic growth outperforming expectations in Q4, rising to a four-quarter high of 7.4%, supported by higher net indirect taxes, strong government capital expenditure (CAPEX), and improved net exports. However, private consumption remained subdued, falling to a five-quarter low of 6.0%, despite a potential boost from rural demand. Even as government CAPEX remained strong bolstering Gross Capital Formation, government consumption slowed sharply. On the supply side, GVA rose to a four-quarter high of 6.8%, driven by a pickup in industrial activity, continued resilience in the services sector, and still robust agricultural output. Given persistent downside risks to growth amid elevated global uncertainty and contained inflation, we maintain our expectation of a 25-bps RBI rate cut in June.