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GDP growth jumps to 6.1% in Q4 FY23; net exports and manufacturing surprised on the upside

  • 1 Jun 2023
  • Post Views: 7902

India’s real GDP growth accelerated to 6.1% YoY in the Jan-Mar quarter (Q4 FY23) from 4.5% previously. While growth continued to be driven by strong investment activity and services sector recovery, more impressive was the turnaround in industrial activity (mainly manufacturing) and net exports (whose contribution to headline growth turned positive) which led to growth surpassing the 6% mark (much above the market expectation of 5.1%). Growth for the full year FY23 was 7.2%. From a policy standpoint, we retain our expectation of an extended pause in the RBI monetary policy. Incoming high frequency indicators suggest a positive outlook for the Indian economy in the near term, however a possibility of adverse weather conditions, absence of sustained labour market improvement and external weakness could weigh on activity going forward.